Agriculture, trade, and climate change adaptation: a global CGE analysis for Morocco and Turkey

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dc.contributor.author Ouraich, I.
dc.contributor.author Dudu, H.
dc.contributor.author Tyner, W.E.
dc.contributor.author Cakmak, E.H.
dc.date.accessioned 2019-07-25T14:16:33Z
dc.date.available 2019-07-25T14:16:33Z
dc.date.issued 2019
dc.identifier.issn 1362-9387
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org10.1080/13629387.2018.1463847
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12485/450
dc.description.abstract The extent to which agricultural trade liberalisation can be an adaptation strategy in the face of climate change remains to be an open discussion in the literature. We set out to answer this question in the context of Morocco and Turkey by taking into account the impact of climate change on agricultural international markets at the global level. We use the GTAP model, combined with a newly developed global database on climate change impacts on agricultural crop sectors by 2050 as captured by yield projections. Results suggest that the more trade is liberalised, the higher global welfare gains are. However, the gains are not large enough to offset the loss from climate change impacts on agricultural productivity globally. In Morocco, agricultural trade liberalisation, on average, induces additional welfare losses. The main drivers are the deterioration in the terms of trade that offsets all the potential gains from the better allocation of economic resources due to free trade. For Turkey, trade liberalisation induces net welfare gains under all scenarios. The larger the tariff elimination scheme, the larger the net gains due to the more efficient allocation of economic resources, which partially offset the impact of declining terms of trade. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Routledge en_US
dc.subject agriculture en_US
dc.title Agriculture, trade, and climate change adaptation: a global CGE analysis for Morocco and Turkey en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.relation.journal Journal of North African Studies en_US
dc.identifier.startpage 1 en_US
dc.identifier.endpage 31 en_US

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